Ludogorets II vs FK Minyor Pernik — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 85+ matches
Ludogorets II56%
FK Minyor Pernik21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ludogorets II creates 82% more chances
Season form · 114 home / 85 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ludogorets II ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.05 · 114 matches
FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ludogorets II attack 1.87 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75
FK Minyor Pernik attack 0.87 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Ludogorets II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
FK Minyor Pernik substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Dunav Ruse
Yantra 2019
Fratria
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko TarnovoLudogorets II
Marek
Hebar 1918
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
SevlievoFK Minyor Pernik
BelasitsaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ludogorets II host FK Minyor Pernik on Wednesday, 23 October 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Ludogorets II 5 – 1 FK Minyor Pernik
Ludogorets II beat FK Minyor Pernik 5-1 in Second League on October 23, 2024.
Goals: B. Chukanov (9'), H. Kelyovluev (29'), A. Pemperski (38'), M. Tissera (54', 60'), E. Syrov (84').
The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.