Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ludogorets II vs Chernomorets Balchik — Second League 2018

Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
8/21/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 6Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ludogorets II60%
×Draw23%
Chernomorets Balchik17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets II
1.77
Chernomorets Balchik
0.82

Ludogorets II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 43 away

creates per match

Ludogorets II
1.84
Chernomorets Balchik
0.60

allows per match

Ludogorets II
1.05
Chernomorets Balchik
1.70

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw
83%
Ludogorets II or Chernomorets Balchik
77%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
40%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+
34%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals
83%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
53%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
26%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
56%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
20%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
78%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.05 · 128 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.84 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.60 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ludogorets II scores more
60%
level
23%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
17%

Ludogorets II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Ludogorets II 1–0 Chernomorets Balchik

Ludogorets II beat Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 in Second League on August 21, 2023.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.