Chernomorets Balchik 0–2 Ludogorets II

Chernomorets Balchik

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ludogorets II

3/4/2024

Second League · Round 23Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik45%

×Draw28%

Ludogorets II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets BalchikExpected goals in this matchLudogorets II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.96

Chernomorets Balchik

1.32

Ludogorets II

0.96

Chernomorets Balchik creates 38% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 131 away

1.23

creates per match

0.93

0.98

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik

1.23

Ludogorets II

0.93

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik

0.98

Ludogorets II

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Ludogorets II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw

73%

Chernomorets Balchik or Ludogorets II

72%

Draw or Ludogorets II

55%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+

21%

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals

73%

Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals

38%

Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals

15%

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

62%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

25%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)

62%

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.41 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 1.23 + Ludogorets II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ludogorets II attack 0.93 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more

45%

level

28%

Ludogorets II scores more

27%

Chernomorets Balchik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff