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Ludogorets II vs Botev Plovdiv II — Second League 2018

Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
10/18/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 13Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Ludogorets II63%
×Draw22%
Botev Plovdiv II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets II
1.88
Botev Plovdiv II
0.79

Ludogorets II creates 138% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 54 away

creates per match

Ludogorets II
1.83
Botev Plovdiv II
0.52

allows per match

Ludogorets II
1.05
Botev Plovdiv II
1.93

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw
85%
Ludogorets II or Botev Plovdiv II
78%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
37%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+
38%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals
85%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
56%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
29%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
55%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
19%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
81%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.05 · 126 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.83 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ludogorets II scores more
63%
level
22%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
15%

Ludogorets II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets II vs Botev Plovdiv II

Ludogorets II beat Botev Plovdiv II 1-0 in Second League on October 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.