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Botev Plovdiv II vs Ludogorets II — Second League 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
11/16/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II42%
×Draw28%
Ludogorets II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
1.30
Ludogorets II
1.06

Botev Plovdiv II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 130 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Ludogorets II
0.92

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.20
Ludogorets II
1.40

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Ludogorets II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
70%
Botev Plovdiv II or Ludogorets II
72%
Draw or Ludogorets II
58%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
19%
Ludogorets II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
73%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
37%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
14%
Ludogorets II 1+ goals
65%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
29%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
58%
Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Ludogorets II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ludogorets II attack 0.92 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
42%
level
28%
Ludogorets II scores more
30%

Botev Plovdiv II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs Ludogorets II

Botev Plovdiv II beat Ludogorets II 2-0 in Second League on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.