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Lucksta vs Boden City — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Lucksta
Lucksta
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Boden City
Boden City
A. Turay 73'
S. Tahir 64'
G. Buzuku 60'
B. Monteiro 45'
9/27/2025Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - Relegation Round - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lucksta44%
×Draw22%
Boden City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lucksta
1.99
Boden City
1.73

Lucksta creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lucksta
1.90
Boden City
1.33

allows per match

Lucksta
2.13
Boden City
2.08

finishing

Lucksta+0.00on par
Boden City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lucksta ↓

Boden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lucksta or draw
66%
Lucksta or Boden City
78%
Draw or Boden City
56%

Winning margin

Lucksta wins by 2+
25%
Boden City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lucksta 1+ goals
86%
Lucksta 2+ goals
59%
Lucksta 3+ goals
32%
Boden City 1+ goals
82%
Boden City 2+ goals
52%
Boden City 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lucksta (draw refunded)
56%
Boden City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lucksta at home — creates 1.90, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Boden City away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lucksta attack 1.90 + Boden City defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.99

Boden City attack 1.33 + Lucksta defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lucksta scores more
44%
level
22%
Boden City scores more
34%

Lucksta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lucksta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
B. Monteiro
60'
G. Buzuku
64'
S. Tahir
73'
A. Turay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norrland: Lucksta 3–1 Boden City

Lucksta beat Boden City 3-1 in Division 2 - Norrland on September 27, 2025.

Goals: B. Monteiro (45'), G. Buzuku (60'), S. Tahir (64'), A. Turay (73').