Boden City 1–4 Lucksta: Result & Stats

Boden City

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Lucksta

M. Bello 76'

A. Turay 90'

A. Gibrill During 52'

S. Tewelde 45'

G. Buzuku 22'

8/24/2025

Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - Promotion Round - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Boden City40%

×Draw22%

Lucksta37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boden CityExpected goals in this matchLucksta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.71

Boden City

1.79

Lucksta

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

1.17

creates per match

1.68

1.75

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Boden City

1.17

Lucksta

1.68

allows per match

Boden City

1.75

Lucksta

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boden City+0.00on par

Lucksta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boden City ↓

Lucksta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Boden City or draw

63%

Boden City or Lucksta

78%

Draw or Lucksta

60%

Winning margin

Boden City wins by 2+

21%

Lucksta wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Boden City 1+ goals

83%

Boden City 2+ goals

53%

Boden City 3+ goals

26%

Lucksta 1+ goals

82%

Lucksta 2+ goals

51%

Lucksta 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Boden City (draw refunded)

52%

Lucksta (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boden City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Lucksta away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boden City attack 1.17 + Lucksta defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.79

Lucksta attack 1.68 + Boden City defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Boden City scores more

40%

level

22%

Lucksta scores more

37%

Boden City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Boden City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

45'

52'

76'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff