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Lucko vs Dinamo Zagreb II — First NL 2018

Lucko
Lucko
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Zagreb II
Dinamo Zagreb II
9/10/2018First NLFirst NL · Round 3Igralište Lučkog (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lucko47%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Zagreb II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lucko
1.35
Dinamo Zagreb II
0.90

Lucko creates 50% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 55 away

creates per match

Lucko
1.07
Dinamo Zagreb II
0.93

allows per match

Lucko
0.86
Dinamo Zagreb II
1.62

finishing

Lucko+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lucko ↓

Dinamo Zagreb II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lucko or draw
75%
Lucko or Dinamo Zagreb II
72%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb II
53%

Winning margin

Lucko wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lucko 1+ goals
74%
Lucko 2+ goals
39%
Lucko 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals
59%
Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lucko (draw refunded)
65%
Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lucko at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Dinamo Zagreb II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lucko attack 1.07 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 0.93 + Lucko defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lucko scores more
47%
level
28%
Dinamo Zagreb II scores more
25%

Lucko at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lucko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lucko vs Dinamo Zagreb II

Lucko beat Dinamo Zagreb II 1-0 in First NL on September 10, 2018.

The match was played at Igralište Lučkog (Zagreb).