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Dinamo Zagreb II vs Lucko — First NL 2018

Dinamo Zagreb II
Dinamo Zagreb II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lucko
Lucko
3/17/2019First NLFirst NL · Round 16Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb II62%
×Draw25%
Lucko13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb II
1.56
Lucko
0.57

Dinamo Zagreb II creates 174% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb II
1.52
Lucko
0.33

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb II
0.80
Lucko
1.60

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par
Lucko+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb II ↓

Lucko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb II or draw
87%
Dinamo Zagreb II or Lucko
75%
Draw or Lucko
38%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+
33%
Lucko wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals
46%
Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals
21%
Lucko 1+ goals
43%
Lucko 2+ goals
11%
Lucko 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)
82%
Lucko (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Lucko away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 1.52 + Lucko defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lucko attack 0.33 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more
62%
level
25%
Lucko scores more
13%

Dinamo Zagreb II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Zagreb II vs Lucko

Dinamo Zagreb II beat Lucko 2-0 in First NL on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb).