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Lubumbashi Sport vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
FT
1 – 0
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
8/24/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport47%
×Draw27%
Bukavu Dawa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lubumbashi Sport
1.43
Bukavu Dawa
0.99

Lubumbashi Sport creates 44% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 27 away

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport
0.90
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw
74%
Lubumbashi Sport or Bukavu Dawa
73%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
53%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
23%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
76%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
42%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
17%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
63%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
26%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
64%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more
47%
level
27%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
26%

Lubumbashi Sport at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lubumbashi Sport vs Bukavu Dawa

Lubumbashi Sport beat Bukavu Dawa 1-0 in Ligue 1 on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.