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Bukavu Dawa vs Lubumbashi Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
CANC
00:00
Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
1/26/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bukavu Dawa34%
×Draw31%
Lubumbashi Sport34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukavu Dawa
0.98
Lubumbashi Sport
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 85 away

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa
0.52
Lubumbashi Sport
0.76

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa
1.21
Lubumbashi Sport
1.45

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par
Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw
66%
Bukavu Dawa or Lubumbashi Sport
69%
Draw or Lubumbashi Sport
66%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
13%
Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
62%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
26%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
8%
Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
62%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
26%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
50%
Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 0.98

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more
34%
level
31%
Lubumbashi Sport scores more
34%

Bukavu Dawa at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Bukavu Dawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bukavu Dawa vs Lubumbashi Sport — Match Preview

Bukavu Dawa face Lubumbashi Sport on January 26, 2020 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bukavu Dawa host Lubumbashi Sport at Stade de la Concorde.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.