Lublinianka 0–1 KSZO 1929: Result & Stats

Lublinianka

FT

0 – 1

KSZO 1929

5/24/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Stadion Lublinianki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lublinianka24%

×Draw24%

KSZO 192952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LubliniankaExpected goals in this matchKSZO 1929

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.74

Lublinianka

1.11

KSZO 1929

1.74

KSZO 1929 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 105 away

0.94

creates per match

1.36

2.12

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Lublinianka

0.94

KSZO 1929

1.36

allows per match

Lublinianka

2.12

KSZO 1929

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lublinianka+0.00on par

KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lublinianka ↓

KSZO 1929 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lublinianka or draw

48%

Lublinianka or KSZO 1929

76%

Draw or KSZO 1929

76%

Winning margin

Lublinianka wins by 2+

9%

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Lublinianka 1+ goals

67%

Lublinianka 2+ goals

30%

Lublinianka 3+ goals

10%

KSZO 1929 1+ goals

82%

KSZO 1929 2+ goals

52%

KSZO 1929 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Lublinianka (draw refunded)

32%

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lublinianka at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

KSZO 1929 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lublinianka attack 0.94 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

KSZO 1929 attack 1.36 + Lublinianka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lublinianka scores more

24%

level

24%

KSZO 1929 scores more

52%

KSZO 1929 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff