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KSZO 1929 vs Lublinianka — III Liga - Group 4 2020

KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lublinianka
Lublinianka
10/22/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KSZO 192966%
×Draw17%
Lublinianka17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KSZO 1929
2.69
Lublinianka
1.29

KSZO 1929 creates 109% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 16 away

creates per match

KSZO 1929
1.81
Lublinianka
1.56

allows per match

KSZO 1929
1.01
Lublinianka
3.56

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par
Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Lublinianka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw
83%
KSZO 1929 or Lublinianka
83%
Draw or Lublinianka
34%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
45%
Lublinianka wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals
93%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
74%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
49%
Lublinianka 1+ goals
72%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
37%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
80%
Lublinianka (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.69

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more
66%
level
17%
Lublinianka scores more
17%

KSZO 1929 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: KSZO 1929 3–2 Lublinianka

KSZO 1929 beat Lublinianka 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy in Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski.