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Lublinianka vs Korona Kielce II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lublinianka
Lublinianka
FT
1 – 2
Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
9/17/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion Lublinianki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lublinianka30%
×Draw23%
Korona Kielce II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lublinianka
1.41
Korona Kielce II
1.79

Korona Kielce II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

creates per match

Lublinianka
0.94
Korona Kielce II
1.46

allows per match

Lublinianka
2.12
Korona Kielce II
1.87

finishing

Lublinianka+0.00on par
Korona Kielce II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lublinianka ↓

Korona Kielce II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lublinianka or draw
54%
Lublinianka or Korona Kielce II
77%
Draw or Korona Kielce II
70%

Winning margin

Lublinianka wins by 2+
14%
Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lublinianka 1+ goals
76%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
41%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
17%
Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
83%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
53%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lublinianka (draw refunded)
40%
Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lublinianka at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Korona Kielce II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.87 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lublinianka attack 0.94 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.41

Korona Kielce II attack 1.46 + Lublinianka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lublinianka scores more
30%
level
23%
Korona Kielce II scores more
46%

Korona Kielce II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lublinianka vs Korona Kielce II

Korona Kielce II beat Lublinianka 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lublinianki in Lublin.