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Korona Kielce II vs Lublinianka — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
FT
3 – 2
Lublinianka
Lublinianka
4/23/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion Korona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Korona Kielce II62%
×Draw17%
Lublinianka20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce II
2.80
Lublinianka
1.58

Korona Kielce II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 16 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce II
2.04
Lublinianka
1.56

allows per match

Korona Kielce II
1.60
Lublinianka
3.56

finishing

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par
Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce II ↓

Lublinianka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Korona Kielce II or draw
80%
Korona Kielce II or Lublinianka
83%
Draw or Lublinianka
38%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
42%
Lublinianka wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
94%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
76%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
52%
Lublinianka 1+ goals
79%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
47%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
75%
Lublinianka (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce II attack 2.04 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.80

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Korona Kielce II scores more
62%
level
17%
Lublinianka scores more
20%

Korona Kielce II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Korona Kielce II 3–2 Lublinianka

Korona Kielce II beat Lublinianka 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Korona in Kielce.