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Lublinianka vs Cracovia Kraków II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lublinianka
Lublinianka
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Cracovia Kraków II
Cracovia Kraków II
8/13/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Lublinianki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lublinianka28%
×Draw23%
Cracovia Kraków II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lublinianka
1.30
Cracovia Kraków II
1.77

Cracovia Kraków II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

creates per match

Lublinianka
0.94
Cracovia Kraków II
1.42

allows per match

Lublinianka
2.12
Cracovia Kraków II
1.66

finishing

Lublinianka+0.00on par
Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lublinianka ↓

Cracovia Kraków II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lublinianka or draw
52%
Lublinianka or Cracovia Kraków II
77%
Draw or Cracovia Kraków II
72%

Winning margin

Lublinianka wins by 2+
12%
Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lublinianka 1+ goals
73%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
37%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
14%
Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals
83%
Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals
53%
Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lublinianka (draw refunded)
37%
Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lublinianka at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Cracovia Kraków II away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.66 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lublinianka attack 0.94 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.42 + Lublinianka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lublinianka scores more
28%
level
23%
Cracovia Kraków II scores more
48%

Cracovia Kraków II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lublinianka 0–3 Cracovia Kraków II

Cracovia Kraków II beat Lublinianka 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lublinianki in Lublin.