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Cracovia Kraków II vs Lublinianka — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Cracovia Kraków II
Cracovia Kraków II
FT
9 – 0
Lublinianka
Lublinianka
3/11/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Baza treningowa KS Cracovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cracovia Kraków II64%
×Draw17%
Lublinianka19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Kraków II
2.71
Lublinianka
1.42

Cracovia Kraków II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.87
Lublinianka
1.56

allows per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.27
Lublinianka
3.56

finishing

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par
Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Kraków II ↓

Lublinianka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Cracovia Kraków II or draw
81%
Cracovia Kraków II or Lublinianka
83%
Draw or Lublinianka
36%

Winning margin

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+
43%
Lublinianka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals
93%
Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals
75%
Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals
50%
Lublinianka 1+ goals
76%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
41%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)
78%
Lublinianka (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Kraków II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.87 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.71

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cracovia Kraków II scores more
64%
level
17%
Lublinianka scores more
19%

Cracovia Kraków II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Cracovia Kraków II 9–0 Lublinianka

Cracovia Kraków II beat Lublinianka 9-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Baza treningowa KS Cracovia in Rączna.