Luarca 2–1 Lenense: Result & Stats

Luarca

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lenense

Juanma Martínez 73'

Deco 64' (pen)

Cejudo 82'

2/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio La Veigona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Luarca45%

×Draw27%

Lenense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuarcaExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.07

Luarca

1.42

Lenense

1.07

Luarca creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 96 away

1.12

creates per match

0.76

1.39

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Luarca

1.12

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Luarca

1.39

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luarca+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luarca ↓

Lenense →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luarca or draw

72%

Luarca or Lenense

73%

Draw or Lenense

55%

Winning margin

Luarca wins by 2+

22%

Lenense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Luarca 1+ goals

76%

Luarca 2+ goals

41%

Luarca 3+ goals

17%

Lenense 1+ goals

66%

Lenense 2+ goals

29%

Lenense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Luarca (draw refunded)

61%

Lenense (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Luarca at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Luarca attack 1.12 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lenense attack 0.76 + Luarca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Luarca scores more

45%

level

27%

Lenense scores more

28%

Luarca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Luarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

DecoPenalty

66'

Mathe← Deco

66'

K. Luong← Sergio Fernández

73'

Juanma Martínez

74'

Efrén Méndez← Mario López

76'

Pablo Martínez← Luismi

76'

Kodiou Sidibé← Carlos Blanco

82'

Cejudo

84'

Pedro Clute← Sergio Ismael

88'

Ardura← Juanma Martínez

88'

Alvaro Sánchez← Julio Vázquez

Luarca

Lenense

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Martínez

Manager: Javi Prendes

66'▲Mathe←▼Deco

66'▲K. Luong←▼Sergio Fernández

74'▲Efrén Méndez←▼Mario López

88'▲Ardura←▼Juanma Martínez

Luarca substitutes

MatheLuongMéndezArdura

Manager: Alfonso Arias

76'▲Pablo Martínez←▼Luismi

76'▲Kodiou Sidibé←▼Carlos Blanco

84'▲Pedro Clute←▼Sergio Ismael

88'▲Alvaro Sánchez←▼Julio Vázquez

Lenense substitutes

MartínezSidibéCluteSánchez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Luarca 2–1 Lenense

Luarca beat Lenense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 20, 2022.

Goals: Deco (64' pen), Juanma Martínez (73'), Cejudo (82').

The match was played at Estadio La Veigona in Luarca.

Luarca vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Luarca 2–1 Lenense