Lenense 3–1 Luarca: Result & Stats

Lenense

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Luarca

Cejudo 60'

Kodiou Sidibé 21'

R. Palermo 9'

Carlos Diaz 14' (OG)

10/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lenense48%

×Draw26%

Luarca26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchLuarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Lenense

1.50

Luarca

1.04

Lenense creates 44% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 51 away

1.27

creates per match

0.75

1.32

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Luarca

0.75

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Luarca

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Luarca →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

74%

Lenense or Luarca

74%

Draw or Luarca

52%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

24%

Luarca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

78%

Lenense 2+ goals

44%

Lenense 3+ goals

19%

Luarca 1+ goals

65%

Luarca 2+ goals

28%

Luarca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

65%

Luarca (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Luarca attack 0.75 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lenense scores more

48%

level

26%

Luarca scores more

26%

Lenense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

R. Palermo

14'

Carlos DiazOwn goal

21'

Kodiou Sidibé

58'

Alberto Arias← R. Palermo

60'

Sergio Fernández← Yacouba Dabo

60'

Pablo Suarez← Miguel Sánchez

60'

Raúl Rodríguez← Michu

60'

Cejudo

69'

K. Luong← Barragáns

77'

Alvaro Sánchez← Kodiou Sidibé

77'

Carlos Blanco← R. Alvarez

77'

Adrián Álvarez← Juanma Martínez

85'

Sergio Encina← Jorge Fidalgo

85'

Guille Cortina← Luismi

Lenense

Luarca

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Palermo

⚽

▼

Sidibé

Manager: Alfonso Arias

58'▲Alberto Arias←▼R. Palermo

77'▲Alvaro Sánchez←▼Kodiou Sidibé

77'▲Carlos Blanco←▼R. Alvarez

85'▲Sergio Encina←▼Jorge Fidalgo

85'▲Guille Cortina←▼Luismi

Lenense substitutes

AriasSánchezBlancoEncinaCortina

Manager: Javi Prendes

60'▲Sergio Fernández←▼Yacouba Dabo

60'▲Pablo Suarez←▼Miguel Sánchez

60'▲Raúl Rodríguez←▼Michu

69'▲K. Luong←▼Barragáns

77'▲Adrián Álvarez←▼Juanma Martínez

Luarca substitutes

FernándezSuarezRodríguezLuongÁlvarez

Match Recap: Lenense vs Luarca

Lenense beat Luarca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 9, 2021.

Goals: R. Palermo (9'), Carlos Diaz (14' o.g.), Kodiou Sidibé (21'), Cejudo (60').

The match was played at Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón in Pola de Lena.

Lenense vs Luarca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lenense vs Luarca