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Luarca vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Luarca
Luarca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Covadonga
Covadonga
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio La Veigona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Luarca25%
×Draw25%
Covadonga50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luarca
1.04
Covadonga
1.59

Covadonga creates 53% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 83 away

creates per match

Luarca
1.12
Covadonga
1.80

allows per match

Luarca
1.39
Covadonga
0.96

finishing

Luarca+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luarca ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Luarca or draw
50%
Luarca or Covadonga
75%
Draw or Covadonga
75%

Winning margin

Luarca wins by 2+
9%
Covadonga wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Luarca 1+ goals
65%
Luarca 2+ goals
28%
Luarca 3+ goals
9%
Covadonga 1+ goals
80%
Covadonga 2+ goals
47%
Covadonga 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Luarca (draw refunded)
33%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luarca at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luarca attack 1.12 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Luarca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luarca scores more
25%
level
25%
Covadonga scores more
50%

Covadonga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Luarca 1–2 Covadonga

Covadonga beat Luarca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Veigona in Luarca.