Covadonga 0–1 Luarca: Result & Stats

Covadonga

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luarca

2/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Covadonga63%

×Draw22%

Luarca15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CovadongaExpected goals in this matchLuarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.77

Covadonga

1.86

Luarca

0.77

Covadonga creates 142% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

1.99

creates per match

0.75

0.78

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Covadonga

1.99

Luarca

0.75

allows per match

Covadonga

0.78

Luarca

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par

Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Luarca →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw

85%

Covadonga or Luarca

78%

Draw or Luarca

37%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+

37%

Luarca wins by 2+

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals

84%

Covadonga 2+ goals

55%

Covadonga 3+ goals

28%

Luarca 1+ goals

54%

Luarca 2+ goals

18%

Luarca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)

81%

Luarca (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.99 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Luarca attack 0.75 + Covadonga defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Covadonga scores more

63%

level

22%

Luarca scores more

15%

Covadonga at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff