Luarca 0–3 Colunga: Result & Stats

Luarca

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Colunga

Diego Nuño 83'

Robert Martínez 75'

B. Kovalenko 59'

3/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio La Veigona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Luarca37%

×Draw27%

Colunga36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuarcaExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.21

Luarca

1.23

Colunga

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 113 away

1.12

creates per match

1.04

1.39

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Luarca

1.12

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Luarca

1.39

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luarca+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luarca ↓

Colunga →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Luarca or draw

64%

Luarca or Colunga

73%

Draw or Colunga

63%

Winning margin

Luarca wins by 2+

16%

Colunga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Luarca 1+ goals

71%

Luarca 2+ goals

35%

Luarca 3+ goals

13%

Colunga 1+ goals

70%

Colunga 2+ goals

34%

Colunga 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Luarca (draw refunded)

51%

Colunga (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Luarca at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Luarca attack 1.12 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Colunga attack 1.04 + Luarca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Luarca scores more

37%

level

27%

Colunga scores more

36%

Luarca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Luarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Israel Villoria← Antonio Ferrera

58'

Efrén Méndez← Barragáns

59'

B. Kovalenko

61'

Keko Roza← Carlos Barcia

74'

Santi Ramos← Daniel Corgo

74'

David Moreno← B. Kovalenko

75'

Robert Martínez

81'

Diego Iza← F. Richi

81'

Álvaro Ferreira← Nelson Cano

83'

Diego Nuño

86'

Hasdriell← Miguel Fernández

86'

Bernat Merinas← Cristian Rubio

Luarca

Colunga

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Andrés Hernández

58'▲Israel Villoria←▼Antonio Ferrera

58'▲Efrén Méndez←▼Barragáns

86'▲Hasdriell←▼Miguel Fernández

86'▲Bernat Merinas←▼Cristian Rubio

Luarca substitutes

VilloriaMéndezHasdriellMerinas

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

61'▲Keko Roza←▼Carlos Barcia

74'▲Santi Ramos←▼Daniel Corgo

74'▲David Moreno←▼B. Kovalenko

81'▲Diego Iza←▼F. Richi

81'▲Álvaro Ferreira←▼Nelson Cano

Colunga substitutes

RozaRamosMorenoIzaFerreira

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Luarca 0–3 Colunga

Colunga beat Luarca 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 28, 2024.

Goals: B. Kovalenko (59'), Robert Martínez (75'), Diego Nuño (83').

The match was played at Estadio La Veigona in Luarca.

Luarca vs Colunga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Luarca 0–3 Colunga