Colunga 1–1 Luarca: Result & Stats

Colunga

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Luarca

Daniel Corgo 88'

Israel Villoria 19'

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Colunga47%

×Draw26%

Luarca26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchLuarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.01

Colunga

1.46

Luarca

1.01

Colunga creates 45% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 51 away

1.19

creates per match

0.75

1.27

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Luarca

0.75

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Luarca

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Luarca →

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

74%

Colunga or Luarca

74%

Draw or Luarca

53%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

23%

Luarca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

77%

Colunga 2+ goals

43%

Colunga 3+ goals

18%

Luarca 1+ goals

64%

Luarca 2+ goals

27%

Luarca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

64%

Luarca (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Luarca attack 0.75 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colunga scores more

47%

level

26%

Luarca scores more

26%

Colunga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Israel Villoria

46'

Iván Salas← David Moreno

71'

Miguel Prendes← Keko Roza

74'

Efrén Méndez← Nico Esono

82'

Antonio Ferrera← Cristian Rubio

88'

Daniel Corgo

Colunga

Luarca

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

46'▲Iván Salas←▼David Moreno

71'▲Miguel Prendes←▼Keko Roza

Colunga substitutes

SalasPrendes

Manager: Andrés Hernández

74'▲Efrén Méndez←▼Nico Esono

82'▲Antonio Ferrera←▼Cristian Rubio

Luarca substitutes

MéndezFerrera