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Luarca vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Luarca
Luarca
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio La Veigona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Luarca44%
×Draw26%
Avilés Stadium29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luarca
1.44
Avilés Stadium
1.12

Luarca creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 80 away

creates per match

Luarca
1.12
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

Luarca
1.39
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

Luarca+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luarca ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Luarca or draw
71%
Luarca or Avilés Stadium
74%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
56%

Winning margin

Luarca wins by 2+
21%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Luarca 1+ goals
76%
Luarca 2+ goals
42%
Luarca 3+ goals
18%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
67%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
31%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Luarca (draw refunded)
60%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luarca at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luarca attack 1.12 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Luarca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Luarca scores more
44%
level
26%
Avilés Stadium scores more
29%

Luarca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Luarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Luarca 3–2 Avilés Stadium

Luarca beat Avilés Stadium 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Veigona in Luarca.