Avilés Stadium 1–1 Luarca: Result & Stats

Avilés Stadium

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Luarca

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Avilés Stadium42%

×Draw29%

Luarca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avilés StadiumExpected goals in this matchLuarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.97

Avilés Stadium

1.23

Luarca

0.97

Avilés Stadium creates 27% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

0.74

creates per match

0.75

1.20

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Avilés Stadium

0.74

Luarca

0.75

allows per match

Avilés Stadium

1.20

Luarca

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Luarca →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw

71%

Avilés Stadium or Luarca

71%

Draw or Luarca

58%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+

19%

Luarca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals

71%

Avilés Stadium 2+ goals

35%

Avilés Stadium 3+ goals

13%

Luarca 1+ goals

62%

Luarca 2+ goals

25%

Luarca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)

59%

Luarca (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.23

Luarca attack 0.75 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more

42%

level

29%

Luarca scores more

29%

Avilés Stadium at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avilés Stadium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff