Luanda Villa 1–1 Kisumu All Stars: Result & Stats

Luanda Villa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kisumu All Stars

6/1/2025

Super League · Round 35Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Luanda Villa51%

×Draw26%

Kisumu All Stars22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luanda VillaExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.89

Luanda Villa

1.50

Kisumu All Stars

0.89

Luanda Villa creates 69% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 107 away

1.49

creates per match

0.90

0.88

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Luanda Villa

1.49

Kisumu All Stars

0.90

allows per match

Luanda Villa

0.88

Kisumu All Stars

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw

78%

Luanda Villa or Kisumu All Stars

74%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

49%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+

26%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals

78%

Luanda Villa 2+ goals

44%

Luanda Villa 3+ goals

19%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

59%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

22%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)

70%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.90 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Luanda Villa scores more

51%

level

26%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

22%

Luanda Villa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff