Kisumu All Stars 1–1 Luanda Villa: Result & Stats

Kisumu All Stars

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Luanda Villa

10/12/2024

Super League · Round 4Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Kisumu All Stars51%

×Draw28%

Luanda Villa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisumu All StarsExpected goals in this matchLuanda Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.73

Kisumu All Stars

1.34

Luanda Villa

0.73

Kisumu All Stars creates 84% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 56 away

1.39

creates per match

0.64

0.82

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars

1.39

Luanda Villa

0.64

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars

0.82

Luanda Villa

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Luanda Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw

80%

Kisumu All Stars or Luanda Villa

72%

Draw or Luanda Villa

49%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

25%

Luanda Villa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

74%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

39%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

15%

Luanda Villa 1+ goals

52%

Luanda Villa 2+ goals

17%

Luanda Villa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

72%

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more

51%

level

28%

Luanda Villa scores more

20%

Kisumu All Stars at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff