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Luanda Villa vs Gusii — Super League 2018

Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gusii
Gusii
4/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Luanda Villa56%
×Draw25%
Gusii19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda Villa
1.59
Gusii
0.80

Luanda Villa creates 99% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 54 away

creates per match

Luanda Villa
1.49
Gusii
0.72

allows per match

Luanda Villa
0.88
Gusii
1.69

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par
Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Gusii →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw
81%
Luanda Villa or Gusii
75%
Draw or Gusii
44%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+
30%
Gusii wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals
80%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
47%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
21%
Gusii 1+ goals
55%
Gusii 2+ goals
19%
Gusii 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
75%
Gusii (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gusii attack 0.72 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Luanda Villa scores more
56%
level
25%
Gusii scores more
19%

Luanda Villa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Luanda Villa 2–0 Gusii

Luanda Villa beat Gusii 2-0 in Super League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Mumboha Sports Ground in Luanda.