Gusii 2–1 Luanda Villa: Result & Stats

Gusii

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Luanda Villa

1/21/2024

Super League · Round 17Cardinal Otunga High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gusii48%

×Draw28%

Luanda Villa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GusiiExpected goals in this matchLuanda Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.89

Gusii

1.38

Luanda Villa

0.89

Gusii creates 55% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 56 away

1.46

creates per match

0.64

1.13

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Gusii

1.46

Luanda Villa

0.64

allows per match

Gusii

1.13

Luanda Villa

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par

Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Luanda Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gusii or draw

76%

Gusii or Luanda Villa

72%

Draw or Luanda Villa

52%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+

23%

Luanda Villa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals

75%

Gusii 2+ goals

40%

Gusii 3+ goals

16%

Luanda Villa 1+ goals

59%

Luanda Villa 2+ goals

22%

Luanda Villa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)

67%

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gusii scores more

48%

level

28%

Luanda Villa scores more

24%

Gusii at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff