Luanda Villa 4–0 Coastal Heroes: Result & Stats

Luanda Villa

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coastal Heroes

12/2/2023

Super League · Round 12Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Luanda Villa60%

×Draw23%

Coastal Heroes17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luanda VillaExpected goals in this matchCoastal Heroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.84

Luanda Villa

1.80

Coastal Heroes

0.84

Luanda Villa creates 114% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 72 away

1.49

creates per match

0.81

0.88

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Luanda Villa

1.49

Coastal Heroes

0.81

allows per match

Luanda Villa

0.88

Coastal Heroes

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Coastal Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw

83%

Luanda Villa or Coastal Heroes

77%

Draw or Coastal Heroes

40%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+

35%

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals

83%

Luanda Villa 2+ goals

54%

Luanda Villa 3+ goals

27%

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals

57%

Coastal Heroes 2+ goals

21%

Coastal Heroes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)

78%

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Luanda Villa scores more

60%

level

23%

Coastal Heroes scores more

17%

Luanda Villa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff