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Coastal Heroes vs Luanda Villa — Super League 2018

Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
5/18/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 32Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Coastal Heroes51%
×Draw27%
Luanda Villa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coastal Heroes
1.43
Luanda Villa
0.84

Coastal Heroes creates 70% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 56 away

creates per match

Coastal Heroes
1.55
Luanda Villa
0.64

allows per match

Coastal Heroes
1.04
Luanda Villa
1.30

finishing

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par
Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Heroes ↓

Luanda Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Coastal Heroes or draw
78%
Coastal Heroes or Luanda Villa
73%
Draw or Luanda Villa
49%

Winning margin

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
25%
Luanda Villa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
76%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
42%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
17%
Luanda Villa 1+ goals
57%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
21%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
70%
Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Heroes at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Heroes attack 1.55 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + Coastal Heroes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Coastal Heroes scores more
51%
level
27%
Luanda Villa scores more
22%

Coastal Heroes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Coastal Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Coastal Heroes 2–0 Luanda Villa

Coastal Heroes beat Luanda Villa 2-0 in Super League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Serani Sports Ground in Mombasa.