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Luanda Villa vs Assad — Super League 2018

Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Assad
Assad
12/17/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Luanda Villa63%
×Draw22%
Assad15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda Villa
1.89
Assad
0.81

Luanda Villa creates 133% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 73 away

creates per match

Luanda Villa
1.49
Assad
0.74

allows per match

Luanda Villa
0.88
Assad
2.29

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par
Assad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Assad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw
85%
Luanda Villa or Assad
78%
Draw or Assad
37%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+
37%
Assad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals
85%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
56%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
29%
Assad 1+ goals
56%
Assad 2+ goals
19%
Assad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
80%
Assad (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Assad away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.29 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Assad defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.89

Assad attack 0.74 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Luanda Villa scores more
63%
level
22%
Assad scores more
15%

Luanda Villa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luanda Villa vs Assad

Luanda Villa beat Assad 1-0 in Super League on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Mumboha Sports Ground in Luanda.