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Assad vs Luanda Villa — Super League 2018

Assad
Assad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
12/1/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Ukunda Showground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Assad49%
×Draw27%
Luanda Villa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assad
1.40
Luanda Villa
0.88

Assad creates 59% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 56 away

creates per match

Assad
1.50
Luanda Villa
0.64

allows per match

Assad
1.11
Luanda Villa
1.30

finishing

Assad+0.00on par
Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assad ↓

Luanda Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Assad or draw
76%
Assad or Luanda Villa
73%
Draw or Luanda Villa
51%

Winning margin

Assad wins by 2+
24%
Luanda Villa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Assad 1+ goals
75%
Assad 2+ goals
41%
Assad 3+ goals
17%
Luanda Villa 1+ goals
59%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
22%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Assad (draw refunded)
67%
Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assad attack 1.50 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + Assad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Assad scores more
49%
level
27%
Luanda Villa scores more
24%

Assad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Assad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assad vs Luanda Villa

Luanda Villa beat Assad 2-1 in Super League on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Ukunda Showground in Ukunda.