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Luanda City vs Isaac de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Luanda City
Luanda City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
5/17/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 29Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Luanda City46%
×Draw28%
Isaac de Benguela27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda City
1.34
Isaac de Benguela
0.95

Luanda City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

Luanda City
0.90
Isaac de Benguela
0.79

allows per match

Luanda City
1.10
Isaac de Benguela
1.79

finishing

Luanda City+0.00on par
Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda City ↓

Isaac de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Luanda City or draw
73%
Luanda City or Isaac de Benguela
72%
Draw or Isaac de Benguela
54%

Winning margin

Luanda City wins by 2+
21%
Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luanda City 1+ goals
74%
Luanda City 2+ goals
39%
Luanda City 3+ goals
15%
Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
61%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
25%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luanda City (draw refunded)
63%
Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda City at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Isaac de Benguela away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda City attack 0.90 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.34

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.79 + Luanda City defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Luanda City scores more
46%
level
28%
Isaac de Benguela scores more
27%

Luanda City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Luanda City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Luanda City 1–0 Isaac de Benguela

Luanda City beat Isaac de Benguela 1-0 in Girabola on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.