Isaac de Benguela 2–1 Luanda City: Result & Stats

Isaac de Benguela

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Luanda City

12/14/2024

Girabola · Round 14Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Isaac de Benguela45%

×Draw29%

Luanda City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isaac de BenguelaExpected goals in this matchLuanda City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.89

Isaac de Benguela

1.25

Luanda City

0.89

Isaac de Benguela creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

0.62

creates per match

0.63

1.15

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela

0.62

Luanda City

0.63

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela

1.15

Luanda City

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

Luanda City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

Luanda City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw

74%

Isaac de Benguela or Luanda City

71%

Draw or Luanda City

55%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+

20%

Luanda City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals

71%

Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals

36%

Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals

13%

Luanda City 1+ goals

59%

Luanda City 2+ goals

22%

Luanda City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)

63%

Luanda City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Luanda City away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + Luanda City defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.25

Luanda City attack 0.63 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more

45%

level

29%

Luanda City scores more

26%

Isaac de Benguela at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Isaac de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff