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Luanda City vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

Luanda City
Luanda City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
9/29/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 3Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Luanda City34%
×Draw31%
Bravos do Maquis FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda City
1.00
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

creates per match

Luanda City
0.90
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

Luanda City
1.10
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

Luanda City+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda City ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Luanda City or draw
65%
Luanda City or Bravos do Maquis FC
69%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
66%

Winning margin

Luanda City wins by 2+
13%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Luanda City 1+ goals
63%
Luanda City 2+ goals
26%
Luanda City 3+ goals
8%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
64%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
27%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luanda City (draw refunded)
49%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda City at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda City attack 0.90 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Luanda City defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Luanda City scores more
34%
level
31%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
35%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Luanda City 0–2 Bravos do Maquis FC

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Luanda City 2-0 in Girabola on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.