Bravos do Maquis FC 1–3 Luanda City: Result & Stats

Bravos do Maquis FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Luanda City

1/24/2026

Girabola · Round 12Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC59%

×Draw25%

Luanda City16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bravos do Maquis FCExpected goals in this matchLuanda City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.69

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.58

Luanda City

0.69

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 129% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

0.63

0.75

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.30

Luanda City

0.63

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.75

Luanda City

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Luanda City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Luanda City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw

84%

Bravos do Maquis FC or Luanda City

75%

Draw or Luanda City

41%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

32%

Luanda City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

79%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

47%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

21%

Luanda City 1+ goals

50%

Luanda City 2+ goals

15%

Luanda City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

78%

Luanda City (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Luanda City away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Luanda City defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Luanda City attack 0.63 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

59%

level

25%

Luanda City scores more

16%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bravos do Maquis FC vs Luanda City

Luanda City beat Bravos do Maquis FC 3-1 in Girabola on January 24, 2026.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe in Moxico.

Bravos do Maquis FC vs Luanda City — Girabola 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bravos do Maquis FC vs Luanda City