LSK Kvinner W 4–0 Avaldsnes W: Result & Stats

LSK Kvinner W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Avaldsnes W

3/25/2023

Toppserien · Round 1LSK-hallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

LSK Kvinner W65%

×Draw18%

Avaldsnes W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LSK Kvinner WExpected goals in this matchAvaldsnes W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.14

LSK Kvinner W

2.41

Avaldsnes W

1.14

LSK Kvinner W creates 111% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 32 away

1.81

creates per match

0.94

1.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

LSK Kvinner W

1.81

Avaldsnes W

0.94

allows per match

LSK Kvinner W

1.33

Avaldsnes W

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par

Avaldsnes W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LSK Kvinner W ↓

Avaldsnes W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

LSK Kvinner W or draw

83%

LSK Kvinner W or Avaldsnes W

82%

Draw or Avaldsnes W

35%

Winning margin

LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+

43%

Avaldsnes W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals

91%

LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals

69%

LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals

43%

Avaldsnes W 1+ goals

68%

Avaldsnes W 2+ goals

32%

Avaldsnes W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)

80%

Avaldsnes W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LSK Kvinner W at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

Avaldsnes W away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.81 + Avaldsnes W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.41

Avaldsnes W attack 0.94 + LSK Kvinner W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

LSK Kvinner W scores more

65%

level

18%

Avaldsnes W scores more

17%

LSK Kvinner W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "LSK Kvinner W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff