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Avaldsnes W vs LSK Kvinner W — Toppserien 2021

Avaldsnes W
Avaldsnes W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
LSK Kvinner W
LSK Kvinner W
3/27/2022ToppserienToppserien · Round 2Avaldsnes Idrettssenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Avaldsnes W26%
×Draw24%
LSK Kvinner W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avaldsnes W
1.12
LSK Kvinner W
1.67

LSK Kvinner W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 65 away

creates per match

Avaldsnes W
0.90
LSK Kvinner W
1.65

allows per match

Avaldsnes W
1.68
LSK Kvinner W
1.34

finishing

Avaldsnes W+0.00on par
LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avaldsnes W ↓

LSK Kvinner W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Avaldsnes W or draw
50%
Avaldsnes W or LSK Kvinner W
76%
Draw or LSK Kvinner W
74%

Winning margin

Avaldsnes W wins by 2+
10%
LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Avaldsnes W 1+ goals
67%
Avaldsnes W 2+ goals
31%
Avaldsnes W 3+ goals
10%
LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals
81%
LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals
50%
LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Avaldsnes W (draw refunded)
34%
LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avaldsnes W at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

LSK Kvinner W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avaldsnes W attack 0.90 + LSK Kvinner W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.65 + Avaldsnes W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Avaldsnes W scores more
26%
level
24%
LSK Kvinner W scores more
50%

LSK Kvinner W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "LSK Kvinner W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toppserien: Avaldsnes W 0–2 LSK Kvinner W

LSK Kvinner W beat Avaldsnes W 2-0 in Toppserien on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Avaldsnes Idrettssenter in Avaldsnes.