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LPS HD Clinceni vs Gloria Băneasa — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

LPS HD Clinceni
LPS HD Clinceni
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gloria Băneasa
Gloria Băneasa
11/11/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 12Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LPS HD Clinceni51%
×Draw21%
Gloria Băneasa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPS HD Clinceni
2.21
Gloria Băneasa
1.62

LPS HD Clinceni creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 56 away

creates per match

LPS HD Clinceni
2.54
Gloria Băneasa
1.55

allows per match

LPS HD Clinceni
1.69
Gloria Băneasa
1.89

finishing

LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par
Gloria Băneasa+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS HD Clinceni ↓

Gloria Băneasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

LPS HD Clinceni or draw
72%
LPS HD Clinceni or Gloria Băneasa
79%
Draw or Gloria Băneasa
49%

Winning margin

LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+
30%
Gloria Băneasa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals
89%
LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals
65%
LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals
38%
Gloria Băneasa 1+ goals
80%
Gloria Băneasa 2+ goals
48%
Gloria Băneasa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)
64%
Gloria Băneasa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS HD Clinceni at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Gloria Băneasa away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.89 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS HD Clinceni attack 2.54 + Gloria Băneasa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.21

Gloria Băneasa attack 1.55 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

LPS HD Clinceni scores more
51%
level
21%
Gloria Băneasa scores more
28%

LPS HD Clinceni at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "LPS HD Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: LPS HD Clinceni 2–1 Gloria Băneasa

LPS HD Clinceni beat Gloria Băneasa 2-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.