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Gloria Băneasa vs LPS HD Clinceni — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Gloria Băneasa
Gloria Băneasa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
LPS HD Clinceni
LPS HD Clinceni
9/9/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadionul Central Băneasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Gloria Băneasa54%
×Draw20%
LPS HD Clinceni25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloria Băneasa
2.24
LPS HD Clinceni
1.48

Gloria Băneasa creates 51% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 14 away

creates per match

Gloria Băneasa
1.98
LPS HD Clinceni
1.43

allows per match

Gloria Băneasa
1.54
LPS HD Clinceni
2.50

finishing

Gloria Băneasa+0.00on par
LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloria Băneasa ↓

LPS HD Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gloria Băneasa or draw
75%
Gloria Băneasa or LPS HD Clinceni
80%
Draw or LPS HD Clinceni
46%

Winning margin

Gloria Băneasa wins by 2+
33%
LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gloria Băneasa 1+ goals
89%
Gloria Băneasa 2+ goals
65%
Gloria Băneasa 3+ goals
38%
LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals
77%
LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals
43%
LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gloria Băneasa (draw refunded)
68%
LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloria Băneasa at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

LPS HD Clinceni away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloria Băneasa attack 1.98 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.24

LPS HD Clinceni attack 1.43 + Gloria Băneasa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gloria Băneasa scores more
54%
level
20%
LPS HD Clinceni scores more
25%

Gloria Băneasa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gloria Băneasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gloria Băneasa vs LPS HD Clinceni

LPS HD Clinceni beat Gloria Băneasa 2-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Central Băneasa in Băneasa.