LPS HD Clinceni 3–3 CS Afumati: Result & Stats

LPS HD Clinceni

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

CS Afumati

4/20/2024

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 4Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LPS HD Clinceni28%

×Draw20%

CS Afumati52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LPS HD ClinceniExpected goals in this matchCS Afumati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.23

LPS HD Clinceni

1.60

CS Afumati

2.23

CS Afumati creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 35 away

2.54

creates per match

2.77

1.69

allows per match

0.66

creates per match

LPS HD Clinceni

2.54

CS Afumati

2.77

allows per match

LPS HD Clinceni

1.69

CS Afumati

0.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par

CS Afumati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS HD Clinceni ↓

CS Afumati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

LPS HD Clinceni or draw

48%

LPS HD Clinceni or CS Afumati

80%

Draw or CS Afumati

72%

Winning margin

LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+

13%

CS Afumati wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals

80%

LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals

47%

LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals

22%

CS Afumati 1+ goals

89%

CS Afumati 2+ goals

65%

CS Afumati 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)

35%

CS Afumati (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS HD Clinceni at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

CS Afumati away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS HD Clinceni attack 2.54 + CS Afumati defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

CS Afumati attack 2.77 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

LPS HD Clinceni scores more

28%

level

20%

CS Afumati scores more

52%

CS Afumati at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff