CS Afumati 4–0 LPS HD Clinceni: Result & Stats

CS Afumati

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

LPS HD Clinceni

3/30/2024

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadionul Afumaţi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

CS Afumati71%

×Draw16%

LPS HD Clinceni13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS AfumatiExpected goals in this matchLPS HD Clinceni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.05

CS Afumati

2.68

LPS HD Clinceni

1.05

CS Afumati creates 155% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 14 away

2.86

creates per match

1.43

0.68

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

CS Afumati

2.86

LPS HD Clinceni

1.43

allows per match

CS Afumati

0.68

LPS HD Clinceni

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Afumati+0.00on par

LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Afumati ↓

LPS HD Clinceni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

CS Afumati or draw

87%

CS Afumati or LPS HD Clinceni

84%

Draw or LPS HD Clinceni

29%

Winning margin

CS Afumati wins by 2+

50%

LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

CS Afumati 1+ goals

93%

CS Afumati 2+ goals

74%

CS Afumati 3+ goals

49%

LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals

65%

LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals

28%

LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CS Afumati (draw refunded)

85%

LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Afumati at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

LPS HD Clinceni away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Afumati attack 2.86 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.68

LPS HD Clinceni attack 1.43 + CS Afumati defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

CS Afumati scores more

71%

level

16%

LPS HD Clinceni scores more

13%

CS Afumati at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff