LPRC Oilers 0–1 Invincible Eleven: Result & Stats

LPRC Oilers

FT

0 – 1

Invincible Eleven

3/23/2024

LFA First Division · Round 23TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

LPRC Oilers50%

×Draw24%

Invincible Eleven26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LPRC OilersExpected goals in this matchInvincible Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.15

LPRC Oilers

1.71

Invincible Eleven

1.15

LPRC Oilers creates 49% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 51 away

1.67

creates per match

0.90

1.39

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

LPRC Oilers

1.67

Invincible Eleven

0.90

allows per match

LPRC Oilers

1.39

Invincible Eleven

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Invincible Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw

74%

LPRC Oilers or Invincible Eleven

76%

Draw or Invincible Eleven

50%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

27%

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

82%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

51%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

24%

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals

68%

Invincible Eleven 2+ goals

32%

Invincible Eleven 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

66%

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 1.67 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more

50%

level

24%

Invincible Eleven scores more

26%

LPRC Oilers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff