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Invincible Eleven vs LPRC Oilers — LFA First Division 2020

Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
FT
2 – 1
LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
2/19/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 16Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Invincible Eleven31%
×Draw26%
LPRC Oilers43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Invincible Eleven
1.22
LPRC Oilers
1.48

LPRC Oilers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 75 away

creates per match

Invincible Eleven
1.20
LPRC Oilers
1.60

allows per match

Invincible Eleven
1.35
LPRC Oilers
1.24

finishing

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par
LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Invincible Eleven ↓

LPRC Oilers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Invincible Eleven or draw
57%
Invincible Eleven or LPRC Oilers
74%
Draw or LPRC Oilers
69%

Winning margin

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
13%
LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
70%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
34%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
12%
LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
77%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
43%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
42%
LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Invincible Eleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Invincible Eleven attack 1.20 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Invincible Eleven scores more
31%
level
26%
LPRC Oilers scores more
43%

LPRC Oilers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Invincible Eleven vs LPRC Oilers

Invincible Eleven beat LPRC Oilers 2-1 in LFA First Division on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.