LPRC Oilers 3–1 Global Pharma: Result & Stats

LPRC Oilers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Global Pharma

3/10/2024

LFA First Division · Round 21TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

LPRC Oilers49%

×Draw24%

Global Pharma27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LPRC OilersExpected goals in this matchGlobal Pharma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.16

LPRC Oilers

1.66

Global Pharma

1.16

LPRC Oilers creates 43% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 26 away

1.67

creates per match

0.92

1.39

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

LPRC Oilers

1.67

Global Pharma

0.92

allows per match

LPRC Oilers

1.39

Global Pharma

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Global Pharma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Global Pharma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw

73%

LPRC Oilers or Global Pharma

76%

Draw or Global Pharma

51%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

26%

Global Pharma wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

81%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

49%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

23%

Global Pharma 1+ goals

69%

Global Pharma 2+ goals

32%

Global Pharma 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

65%

Global Pharma (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Global Pharma away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 1.67 + Global Pharma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Global Pharma attack 0.92 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more

49%

level

24%

Global Pharma scores more

27%

LPRC Oilers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff