Global Pharma 3–2 LPRC Oilers: Result & Stats

Global Pharma

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

LPRC Oilers

1/9/2025

LFA First Division · Round 15D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Global Pharma35%

×Draw25%

LPRC Oilers41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Global PharmaExpected goals in this matchLPRC Oilers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.53

Global Pharma

1.39

LPRC Oilers

1.53

LPRC Oilers creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 75 away

1.54

creates per match

1.60

1.46

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Global Pharma

1.54

LPRC Oilers

1.60

allows per match

Global Pharma

1.46

LPRC Oilers

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Global Pharma+0.00on par

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global Pharma ↓

LPRC Oilers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Global Pharma or draw

59%

Global Pharma or LPRC Oilers

75%

Draw or LPRC Oilers

65%

Winning margin

Global Pharma wins by 2+

16%

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Global Pharma 1+ goals

75%

Global Pharma 2+ goals

40%

Global Pharma 3+ goals

16%

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

78%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

45%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Global Pharma (draw refunded)

46%

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global Pharma at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global Pharma attack 1.54 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Global Pharma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Global Pharma scores more

35%

level

25%

LPRC Oilers scores more

41%

LPRC Oilers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff