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LPRC Oilers vs Borough — LFA First Division 2020

LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Borough
Borough
4/25/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

LPRC Oilers49%
×Draw23%
Borough28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPRC Oilers
1.87
Borough
1.38

LPRC Oilers creates 36% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 14 away

creates per match

LPRC Oilers
1.67
Borough
1.36

allows per match

LPRC Oilers
1.39
Borough
2.07

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par
Borough+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Borough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw
72%
LPRC Oilers or Borough
77%
Draw or Borough
51%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
27%
Borough wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
85%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
56%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
29%
Borough 1+ goals
75%
Borough 2+ goals
40%
Borough 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
63%
Borough (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Borough away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 1.67 + Borough defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.87

Borough attack 1.36 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more
49%
level
23%
Borough scores more
28%

LPRC Oilers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: LPRC Oilers 0–2 Borough

Borough beat LPRC Oilers 2-0 in LFA First Division on April 25, 2026.