Borough 0–0 LPRC Oilers: Result & Stats

Borough

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

LPRC Oilers

11/20/2025

LFA First Division · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Borough35%

×Draw26%

LPRC Oilers39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoroughExpected goals in this matchLPRC Oilers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.41

Borough

1.33

LPRC Oilers

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 75 away

1.43

creates per match

1.60

1.21

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Borough

1.43

LPRC Oilers

1.60

allows per match

Borough

1.21

LPRC Oilers

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borough+0.00on par

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borough ↓

LPRC Oilers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Borough or draw

61%

Borough or LPRC Oilers

74%

Draw or LPRC Oilers

65%

Winning margin

Borough wins by 2+

16%

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Borough 1+ goals

74%

Borough 2+ goals

38%

Borough 3+ goals

15%

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

76%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

41%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Borough (draw refunded)

48%

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borough at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borough attack 1.43 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Borough defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Borough scores more

35%

level

26%

LPRC Oilers scores more

39%

LPRC Oilers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff