Loyola 2–2 Dynamic Herb Cebu: Result & Stats | PFL

Loyola

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dynamic Herb Cebu

12/1/2024

PFL · Round 4Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Loyola23%

×Draw19%

Dynamic Herb Cebu58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoyolaExpected goals in this matchDynamic Herb Cebu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.44

Loyola

1.50

Dynamic Herb Cebu

2.44

Dynamic Herb Cebu creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 35 away

1.88

creates per match

2.43

2.44

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Loyola

1.88

Dynamic Herb Cebu

2.43

allows per match

Loyola

2.44

Dynamic Herb Cebu

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loyola+0.00on par

Dynamic Herb Cebu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loyola ↓

Dynamic Herb Cebu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Loyola or draw

42%

Loyola or Dynamic Herb Cebu

81%

Draw or Dynamic Herb Cebu

77%

Winning margin

Loyola wins by 2+

10%

Dynamic Herb Cebu wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Loyola 1+ goals

78%

Loyola 2+ goals

44%

Loyola 3+ goals

19%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 1+ goals

91%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 2+ goals

70%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Loyola (draw refunded)

28%

Dynamic Herb Cebu (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loyola at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Dynamic Herb Cebu away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loyola attack 1.88 + Dynamic Herb Cebu defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dynamic Herb Cebu attack 2.43 + Loyola defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Loyola scores more

23%

level

19%

Dynamic Herb Cebu scores more

58%

Dynamic Herb Cebu at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dynamic Herb Cebu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff